ECRI WLI vs S&P500 and GDP Growth

ECRI's WLI Flat While its Growth Rate Falls

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI)

For the week ending July 16, 2010

• WLI  stood at 120.7, unchanged from the prior week which was originally reported at 120.6
• WLI growth fell to minus 10.5 percent from minus 9.8 percent a week ago, its lowest level since May 15, 2009, when it stood at minus 11.1 percent.

This is a chart of the S&P500 (charts + Quote) vs ECRI's WLI from October 1, 2004 through July 23, 2010. 

 Click chart for full size image

This is a chart of ECRI's WLI and WLI growth rate vs. GDP growth from October 1, 2004 through July 23, 2010.

  Click chart for full size image

Data for week ending July 16, 2010:

Indexes       Period   Level  Growth
WLI, Weekly  7/16/10   120.7  -10.5%
WLI, Monthly    6/10   121.1   -7.1%

Note: The WLI for the week ending 7/23/10 will be released on 7/30/10.

 Disclosure:  I am long SPY (charts & quote) in my personal account and in the "Explore Portfolio" in  "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter."

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 152% (a double plus another 52%!!) vs. the S&P500 UP a tiny 1.4% vs. NASDAQ  down 3.8%!!!   (All through 6/30/10)

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In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%
For 2010, as of 7/23/10, the explore portfolio is up 3.5% YTD
vs. DJIA down 0.0% vs. S&P500 down 0.1%!

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More Information:

• Definition of Death Cross
• July 1, 2010:  ECRI: Economic Slowdown Imminent but a New Recession is Not!
• Dec. 4, 2009: ECRI Warns of Lasting High Unemployment Despite Economic Recovery
• July 31, 2009: ECRI Predicts End of Home Price Downturn
  
• July 21, 2009: ECRI Predicts The End of the Recession is Imminent
  
• April 3, 2009: Upturn in ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Says US Business Cycle Recovery Ahead