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Monday, March 25, 2019

Relationships between Treasury Rates, Yield Curve Inversions, Recessions and the Stock Market

Here are some charts showing clear relationships between US Treasury rates, yield curve Inversions, recessions and the Stock Market.

This is the curve that has so many talking about inversion with the 3-month US treasury paying 0.02% more than the 10-year US Treasury.

Yield Curve 10yr - 3Mo
This is the curve that looks out 30 years compared to 1 year:
Yield Curve 30yr-1yr

Yield Curve:  30yr / 3Mo

Rates 10 & 30 Year USTs

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Speaking about yield inversion, Art Cashin, UBS Director of Floor Operations, said on CNBC on 3/25/19:
Every inversion is not followed by a recession but every recession is proceeded by an inversion.  So is it worrisome, Yes?  Is it a guarantee?  No.
S&P 500 Chart:

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