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Tuesday, November 30, 2010

ECRI Calls for Revival of US Economic Growth

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, upgraded their projection for future economic growth. (More about ECRI)  ECRI's managing director and cofounder, Lakshman Achuthan, was on CNBC yesterday to discuss their upgrade of their Oct 28, 2010 prediction "The much-feared double-dip recession is not going to happen"  to "There will be a revival of US Economic growth in the near future."   
In this interview, Achuthan says the the recovery is persistent. If you have read their book, Beating the Business Cycle, you know the WLI indicators must be persistent, pronounced and pervasive before ECRI will call for a turn in the US economy.  The best news is once they declare an upturn, it means there is some margin for economic shocks.  The US economic recovery is not as "fragile" now as it was a few months ago when the WLI was flat.
Some key paraphrased points from the interview:
  • "We are able to say with a lot of conviction, that there is a revival in growth right ahead of us."
  • Our economic longest leading indicators are "locked on" a "soft landing track."
  • "When you are at this stage of the cycle, a shock won't derail us and put us into a new recession."
Click to see full size Image
    • "When you are at this stage of the cycle, a shock won't derail us and put us into a new recession."
    • Almost impossible to jump to a recession track.
    • This is telling us we will see a revival in US economic growth despite numerous headwinds including the current trouble in Europe.
    • In October they said "no second recession."  Now they are saying economic growth COULD grow to 3 or 4% rather than drop to 1 to 2% from the current 2.5% GDP Growth rate.
    • Unemployment: We lost 8.5 million jobs and have made back one million so we're about 7.5 million in the hole.  Even if things go great and we gain another million jobs we'd still be down 6.5 million so we "won't feel great."
    Video: Positive news for investors, with Lakshman Acuthan, Economic Cycle Research Institute.

    Airtime: Tues. Nov. 30 2010 | 3:16 AM ET

    KEY ECRI Articles:

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