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Friday, June 10, 2022

Welcome Back Carter - 8.6% Inflation is the Highest since 1981

CPI-U Inflation came in at 8.6% in May with core inflation at 6.0% over the past year.  The Energy Index rose 3.9% in May and was up 34.6% on the year. Gasoline rose another 4.1% in May and is up 48.7% on the year.  If you think buying a new, more fuel efficient ICE auto or EV will solve your inflation problem, think again as new car prices are up 12.6%, if you can get one, while used cars soared 16.1% on the year.

Chart 1. One-month percent change in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - MAY 2022

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.0 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The increase was broad-based, with the indexes for shelter, gasoline, and food being the largest contributors. After declining in April, the energy index rose 3.9 percent over the month with the gasoline index rising 4.1 percent and the other major component indexes also increasing. The food index rose 1.2 percent in May as the food at home index increased 1.4 percent.  

Chart 2. 12-month percent change in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)



Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in May, the same increase as in April. While almost all major components increased over the month, the largest contributors were the indexes for shelter, airline fares, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles. The indexes for medical care, household furnishings and operations, recreation, and apparel also increased in May. 

The all items index increased 8.6 percent for the 12 months ending May, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.0 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index rose 34.6 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending September 2005. The food index increased 10.1 percent for the 12-months ending May, the first increase of 10 percent or more since the period ending March 1981.


Gasoline Nearing Eight Dollars Per Gallon in Menlo Park California

Biden Barometer
 Natural Gas, Oil Price & Stock Market  Performance under President #46 Joe Biden

Sadly, I see little relief in the short term as gasoline prices have continued to soar in June.  Hopefully you followed my newsletter advice to own some US Treasury Series I Bonds that are currently paying us 9.62% for new issues and I own some that are paying  12.76% due to their base rate of 3.0% plus inflation.




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