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Thursday, October 10, 2019

Investor Sentiment Charts for October 10, 2019

The markets are just off record highs yet investor sentiment is quite bearish.  This is great news for contrarian investors.

This table shows the S&P 500 is only 2.9% below its record high,  the Russell 2000 small cap index is 14.7% off its record high while the Dow and Nasdaq markets are somewhere in between these two.
Market Data for 10/10/19
Market Comparison
Market Sentiment Charts for 10/10/19:

This CPC chart is one of my favorites for aiding me buy and sell around my core positions in addition to the limit orders I have for each stock in my newsletter.  That is I will add or subtract to positions and send out "Special Alert Emails" notifying my subscribers when this CPC and some of my other sentiment charts (not all published below) say it is time.



AAII Survey: Bulls minus Bears vs. Log DJIA




Dow vs proprietary "Oscillators" that also give me help knowing when to add or subtract from my Explore Portfolio positions.




TD: Timer Digest ST (1-yr) Bulls - Bears vs. S&P 500
10/10/19 Close



Once a month in my newsletter on page 6 I update one or more of my sentiment charts and discuss in more detail what they mean to me.  Send for a free sample to see what it looks like.


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Thursday, September 12, 2019

Investor Sentiment Charts for September 11, 2019

Yesterday my Newsletter Explore Portfolio and my own personal portfolio closed at record highs.  
Market Data for 9/11/19
Market Update - Closing Statistics
Despite the markets being close to record highs, investor sentiment is not as bullish as one might think.  Below are some of the sentiment charts I follow.

The "pros" in the II graph are more bullish than individual investors in the AAII graph with the number of bullish individual investors back above the number of bullish investors.


II Bulls-Bears Sentiment Graph - Log Scale

AAII Survey: Bulls minus Bears vs. Log DJIA


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TD: Timer Digest ST (1-yr) Bulls - Bears vs. S&P 500  

TD: Timer Digest Gold Bulls - Bears vs. GLD 

Put Call Ratio ($CPC)

TD Timer of the Year Race
(I'm tied for second for 2019!)






Let me know if you have any other favorite charts of mine you'd like to see on a regular basis.
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Never Forget 9/11/01

Thursday, August 08, 2019

AAII Bulls Minus Bears vs DJIA Survey Data and Graphs for 8/8/19

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months.

As of 08/08/19, the AAII members are:
  • Bullish: 21.66%
  • Neutral: 30.15%
  • Bearish: 48.20%
Below are some of my charts showing this data over time.








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Compare my results to SPY with Dividends reinvested:






More Information
  • Charts of the AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Bulls minus Bears Index versus the market are key sentiment indicators for stock market technical analysis.  Contrarian theory states the time to buy is when fear and pessimism are at a maximum since this usually occurs near market bottoms. 
  • The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months . AAII is the "American Association of Individual Investors." For the survey, Individual members of the AAII are polled on a weekly basis. Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period. The AAII reports the weekly results at https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/
  • A contrarian is a person with a preference for taking a position opposed to that of the majority view prevalent in the group of which they are a part of.

Friday, May 10, 2019

April Treasury Revenue up 4.9% while Spending Soars 7.6%

My table below shows a "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and the Deficit/Surplus of the U.S. Government by Month Through April 2019."  

Monthly US Treasury Statement Calculations
  • A staggering 20.6 cents of ever dollar spent so far in fiscal 2019 came from new borrowing!
Year over year change  for April:
  • Monthly revenue (taxes, fees and tariffs) grew 4.9% over 2019
  • Monthly spending grew 7.6% vs 2019
  • The monthly deficit fell 25.2% vs 2019 
  • but year over year the total deficit grew 37.7%!!!
Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and the Deficit/Surplus of the U.S. Government by Month. [$ millions]

The Monthly Treasury Statement summarizes the financial activities of the federal government and off-budget federal entities and conforms to the Budget of the U.S. Government.

FULL Year Summary:


FULL Year Summary Stated as a Family Budget:



You can never have too much data so I process the latest reports to see tax collections, spending and the official deficit behaves without "noise" from the obviously biased MSM "Main Stream Media."

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Wednesday, May 08, 2019

CNN Fear & Greed Index vs. S&P 500

The "Fear & Greed Index" from CNN Business is currently showing "moderate Fear" with a reading of 42 on a scale of zero to one hundred. Here is a snapshot of the index for today.


Fear & Greed Index for May 8, 2019
This chart shows the Fear and Greed index readings over the past 3 years plotted with the S&P 500 over the same period.
This index is a summation of seven indicators explained in detail here
  1. Stock Price Momentum: The S&P 500 versus its 125-day moving average
  2. Stock Price Strength: The number of stocks hitting 52-week highs and lows on the New York Stock Exchange
  3. Stock Price Breadth: The volume of shares trading in stocks on the rise versus those declining.
  4. Put and Call Options: The put/call ratio, which compares the trading volume of bullish call options relative to the trading volume of bearish put options
  5. Junk Bond Demand: The spread between yields on investment grade bonds and junk bonds
  6. Market Volatility: The VIX, which measures volatility
  7. Safe Haven Demand: The difference in returns for stocks versus Treasuries
How I use this information:

You can see from the two graphs below that my portfolio is well above its 2018 peak while the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested in SPY is back where it started.  This "ratcheting" of returns adds up over time, especially with compounding.

I use periods of strength with highly bullish sentiment (Max greed on the Fear and Greed charts) to take profits then I use the cash to buy again when others are fearful.  You can see from my Explore Portfolio performance graph that this has allowed me to crush the returns of the S&P 500 while having far less risk with typically 60 to 65% in stocks.  If you are young, you could probably do even better with more in my Explore Stocks as I did when I was much younger. 
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To understand more about my method, please read these KEY articles:




Here are some more examples of email alert headers.

Discuss this article on my "Investing for the long term" Facebook group. 



Thursday, April 04, 2019

AAII  Bulls Minus Bears vs DJIA Survey Data and Graph for 4/4/19

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months.
As of   04/4/2019, the AAII members are:  
  • Bullish: 35.02%
  • Neutral: 36.71%
  • Bearish: 28.27%
This chart shows the 52-week moving average of the AAII bull/bear index (American Association of Individual Investors). 52 weeks removes seasonality from the number and gives startling results.

More Information:
  • Charts of the AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Bulls minus Bears Index versus the market are key sentiment indicators for stock market technical analysis.  Contrarian theory states the time to buy is when fear and pessimism are at a maximum since this usually occurs near market bottoms.  
  • The AAII is the "American Association of Individual Investors."   For the survey,  Individual members of the AAII are polled on a weekly basis.  Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period.   The AAII reports the weekly results  at https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/.
  • A contrarian is a person with a preference for taking a position opposed to that of the majority view prevalent in the group of which they are a part


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Monday, March 25, 2019

Relationships between Treasury Rates, Yield Curve Inversions, Recessions and the Stock Market

Here are some charts showing clear relationships between US Treasury rates, yield curve Inversions, recessions and the Stock Market.

This is the curve that has so many talking about inversion with the 3-month US treasury paying 0.02% more than the 10-year US Treasury.


Yield Curve 10yr - 3Mo
This is the curve that looks out 30 years compared to 1 year:
Yield Curve 30yr-1yr

Yield Curve:  30yr / 3Mo

Rates 10 & 30 Year USTs




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Speaking about yield inversion, Art Cashin, UBS Director of Floor Operations, said on CNBC on 3/25/19:
Every inversion is not followed by a recession but every recession is proceeded by an inversion.  So is it worrisome, Yes?  Is it a guarantee?  No.
S&P 500 Chart:

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter Performance

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